An
unspoken question looms about the future of the hockey equipment
industry. Are the manufacturers or the retailers profitable? The
situation is not good for either, as both the manufacturers and the big
retailers are currently hemorrhaging money!
The
biggest manufacturer, Bauer, has a 62% share of the market. They make
great product and they are publicly traded. Even though they own the
market, their profit is miniscule.
They are trying to add other categories to make their business model work,
but at this moment they probably have a break-even business even with their monster share.
Easton,
Reebok/CCM, Warrior and Sherwood have very little market share. They
have no chance of long-term success unless they come up with a way to
take market share from Bauer.
I
believe Sherwood/TPS will be the first to go under. They have almost
no share of the US market and their wood stick business is failing.
Reebok/CCM would be next. Poorly managed, they have failed miserably
every single year since the Reebok takeover of CCM. Adidas, which owns
Reebok, will decide if enough is enough this year. $20M to $40M of
losses (my estimate) year in and year out is not healthy, and there is
no end in sight. Their management team is horrendous and almost every
decision they make is puzzling. I believe it will become a house brand
for some big national retail store in Canada in the future.
Easton, as well is doing poorly. Their parent company, Bell Sports, is trying to sell the
hockey brand, though most interested parties want Easton's healthy baseball division as part of the package.
Warrior, owned by New Balance, is not big and will probably look at buying someone to increase share.
So,
after Bauer, which brands will fill out the top five? In this economy,
most hockey consumers stopped paying retail prices
for goods. On their present margins, the big manufacturers are not
currently profitable, so how will they reduce their prices?
Retailers have been using manufacturer's credit in the $10s of millions of dollars, but have been unable to pay them back for years. Do healthy US businesses allow this in any other industry? The big retailers are suffering a slow death. They are selling product at their cost in order to raise cash so they can meet payroll, rent, etc. but usually have very little left to pay the manufacturers. On the other hand, the manufacturers are addicted to the 4 or 5 big retailers in the US as far as loading them up with product, even though they pay them back very slowly. These retailers are losing millions of dollars every year and their only way out so far has been to not pay the manufacturers.
Retailers have been using manufacturer's credit in the $10s of millions of dollars, but have been unable to pay them back for years. Do healthy US businesses allow this in any other industry? The big retailers are suffering a slow death. They are selling product at their cost in order to raise cash so they can meet payroll, rent, etc. but usually have very little left to pay the manufacturers. On the other hand, the manufacturers are addicted to the 4 or 5 big retailers in the US as far as loading them up with product, even though they pay them back very slowly. These retailers are losing millions of dollars every year and their only way out so far has been to not pay the manufacturers.
Let's
go back to my initial question. What are the brands of the future?
Once the manufacturers or their parent companies decide that they do not
wish to keep losing millions of dollars each year, they will start
calling the debts of the big retailers. Since those retailers do not
have the money, the manufacturers will probably take drastic action
(closing them down). I have asked my accounting buddies on my hockey
team if it is possible for a retailer to do $40M in sales and
have an
inventory of $40M and still be profitable. Their answer was
unanimous: NO WAY! But the manufacturers, with their actions, have
alienated all the smaller to mid-sized stores and have caused many of
them to shut down over the last few years. What will they do about the
consumer's trends (caused by the big retailers) to only buy heavily
discounted product?
These are questions that will be answered in 2013.
The one line of attack that remains untapped for hockey retail in So Cal is a store in Los Angeles. Not a store in LA County, but an actual store in LA. I have heard tell that the real estate is cost prohibitive, but their are retail dead zones in places like East LA and the valley players would GLADLY drive to if it meant not having to take a full day off to go out to the OC and back. If I don't have a store nearby, then I go on-line, and if I go on-line, then every time I do so I'm factoring in CA tax as part of the price, and probably buying from out of state. No shipping, no four hours in the car, getting to actually have a look at the gear first hand, and having the gear in your hands the day you buy? Game over, all my hockey money goes to the shop in LA.
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Actually Bauer had gross revenues for 2012 of $375, adjusted gross profit of $145.1 million and EBITDA of 51.5 million: I wish my small business was in this much trouble. Mike
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